Kug, J.-S., Y. Shin, J.-H. Oh, C. Liu, S.-W. Yeh, J. Schwinger, K. Zickfeld, S.-I. An, S.-W. Son, S.-K. Min, H. Lee, N. Steinert : Climate Change Hysteresis and Irreversibility.
In review
García-Pereira, F., J. F. González-Rouco, N. Meabe-Yanguas, P. de Vrese, N. J. Steinert, J. Jungclaus, S. Lorenz: Permafrost sensitivity to soil hydro-thermodynamics in historical and scenario simulations with the MPI-ESM.
In review
Steinert, N. J., and B. M. Sanderson: Normalizing the permafrost carbon feedback contribution to TCRE and ZEC.
In review
Winkelmann, R., ..., N. J. Steinert, ..., et al.: The Tipping Points Modelling Intercomparison Project (TIPMIP): Assessing tipping point risks in the Earth system.
In review
Sandstad, M., N. J. Steinert, S. Baur, B. M. Sanderson: METEORv1.0.1: A novel framework for emulating multi-timescale regional climate responses.
In review
Sanderson, B., ... N. J. Steinert, ..., et al.: flat10MIP: An emissions-driven experiment to diagnose the climate response to positive, zero, and negative CO2 emissions.
Accepted
Irreversible Land Water Availability Changes From a Potential ITCZ Shift During Temperature Overshoot
Steinert, N. J., J. Schwinger, R. Chadwick, J.-S. Kug, H. Lee
Earth's Future, 13 (5), e2024EF005787 (2025).
Risks of unavoidable impacts on forests at 1.5°C with and without overshoot
Munday, G., C. D. Jones, N. J. Steinert, C. Mathison, E. Burke, C. Smith, C. Huntingford, R. Varney
Nature Climate Change, (2025).
Plant and soil characteristics as key predictors for future agricultural drought
Samantaray, A., K., & Steinert, N. J., P. Mooney:
Environmental Research Letters, 20, 054059 (2025).
A rapid application emissions-to-impacts tool for scenario assessment: Probabilistic Regional Impacts from Model patterns and Emissions (PRIME)
Mathison, C. T., E. Burke, E. Kovacs, G. Munday, C. Jones, C. Smith, C. Huntingford, A. Wiltshire, N. J. Steinert, L. Gohar, R. Varney.
Geoscientific Model Development, 18, 1785-1808 (2025).
Continued permafrost ecosystem carbon loss under net-zero and negative emissions
Park, S-W., Mun, J.-H., J.-S. Kug, H. Lee, N. J. Steinert, S.-I. An, S. Jongsoo
Science Advances, 11, eadn8819 (2025).
Overconfidence in climate overshoot
Schleussner, C.-F., G. Ganti, Q. Lejeune, ..., N. J. Steinert, ..., et al.
Nature, 634, 366-373 (2024).
No respite from permafrost-thaw impacts in absence of a global tipping point
Nitzbon, J., T. Schneider von Deimling, M. Aliyeva, S. E. Chadburn, G. Grosse, S. Laboor, H. Lee, G. Lohmann, N. J. Steinert, S. M. Stuenzi, M. Werner, S. Westermann, and M. Langer
Nature Climate Change, 14, 573-585 (2024).
Underestimated Land Heat Uptake Alters the Global Energy Distribution in CMIP6 Climate Models
Steinert, N. J., F. J. Cuesta-Valero, F. García-Pereira, P. de Vrese, C. Melo-Aguilar, E. García-Bustamante, J. H. Jungclaus, and J. F. González-Rouco
Geophysical Research Letters, 51(10), e2023GL107613 (2024).
Ten New Insights in Climate Science 2023
Bustamante, M., ..., N. J. Steinert, ..., et al.
Global Sustainability, 7, e19, 1-30 (2024).
First comprehensive assessment of industrial era land heat uptake from multiple sources
García-Pereira, F., J. F. González-Rouco, C. Melo-Aguilar, N. J. Steinert, E. García-Bustamante, P. de Vrese, J. Jungclaus, S. Lorenz, S. Hagemann, F. J. Cuesta-Valero, A. García-García and H. Beltrami
Earth System Dynamics, 15, 547-564 (2024).
Climate tipping point interactions and cascades: A review
Wunderling, N. & von der Heydt, A. S., ..., N. J. Steinert, ..., et al.
Earth System Dynamics, 15(1), 41-74 (2024).
Thermodynamic and hydrological drivers of the subsurface thermal regime in Central Spain
García-Pereira, F., J. F. González-Rouco, T. Schmid, C. Melo-Aguilar, C. Vegas-Cañas, N. J. Steinert, P. J. Roldán-Gómez, F. J. Cuesta-Valero, A. García-García, H. Beltrami, and P. de Vrese
SOIL, 10(1), 1-21 (2024).
Evaluating permafrost definitions for global permafrost area estimates in CMIP6 climate models
Steinert, N. J., M. V. Debolskiy, E. J. Burke, F. García-Pereira, and H. Lee
Environmental Research Letters, 19(1), 014033 (2023).
Representation of soil hydrology in permafrost regions may explain large part of inter-model spread in simulated Arctic and subarctic climate
de Vrese, P., G. Georgievski, J. F. Gonzalez Rouco, D. Notz, T. Stacke, N. J. Steinert, S. Wilkenskjeld, and V. Brovkin
The Cryosphere, 17(5), 2095-2118 (2023).
Emit now, mitigate later? Earth system reversibility under overshoots of different magnitude and durations
Schwinger, J., A. Asaadi, N. J. Steinert, H. Lee
Earth System Dynamics, 13(4), 1641-1665 (2022).
Ten new insights in climate science 2022
Martin, M., ..., N. J. Steinert, ..., et al.
Global Sustainability, 5, e20, 1-20 (2022).
Near-surface soil thermal regime and land-air temperature coupling: a case study over Spain
Melo-Aguilar, C. A., J. F. González-Rouco, N. J. Steinert, H. Beltrami, F. Cuesta-Valero, A. García-García, F. García-Pereira, E. García-Bustamante, P. Roldán-Gómez, T. Schmid and J. Navarro
International Journal of Climatology, 42(15), 7516-7534 (2022).
Impact of improved land surface model physics on simulated climate variability and change
Steinert, N.
Thesis (2022).
Increasing the Depth of a Land Surface Model. Part I: Impacts on the Subsurface Thermal Regime and Energy Storage
González-Rouco, J. F., N. J. Steinert, E. García-Bustamante, S. Hagemann, P. de Vrese, J. H. Jungclaus, S. J. Lorenz, C. Melo-Aguilar, F. García-Pereira, and J. Navarro
Journal of Hydrometeorology, 22(12), 3211-3230 (2021).
Increasing the Depth of a Land Surface Model. Part II: Temperature Sensitivity to Improved Subsurface Thermodynamics and Associated Permafrost Response
Steinert, N. J., J. F. González-Rouco, P. de Vrese, E. García-Bustamante, S. Hagemann, C. Melo-Aguilar, J. H. Jungclaus, and S. J. Lorenz
Journal of Hydrometeorology, 22(12), 3231-3254 (2021).
Agreement of Analytical and Simulation-Based Estimates of the Required Land Depth in Climate Models
Steinert, N. J., J. F. González-Rouco, C. A. Melo Aguilar, F. García-Pereira, E. García-Bustamante, P. de Vrese, V. Alexeev, J. H. Jungclaus, S. J. Lorenz, S. Hagemann
Geophysical Research Letters, 48(20), e2021GL094273 (2021).
Cambio climático: una perspectiva global.
González-Rouco J. F., García-Bustamante, E., F. García Pereira, Lucio Eceiza, E., Melo Aguilar, C., Navarro Montesinos, J., Rojas Labanda, C., Roldán, P., Steinert, N., and Vegas Cañas, C.:
In: Cambio climático en el Mediterráneo: procesos, riesgos y políticas. Romero J., J. Olcina (Eds.). Ch. 2, 49-73, 2021, Tirant Humanidades, Valencia.
Methodological and physical biases in global to subcontinental borehole temperature reconstructions: an assessment from a pseudo-proxy perspective
Melo-Aguilar, C., González-Rouco, J. F., García-Bustamante, E., Steinert, N., Jungclaus, J. H., Navarro, J., and Roldán-Gómez, P. J.
Climate of the Past, 16, 453-474 (2020).
Influence of radiative forcing factors on ground-air temperature coupling during the last millennium: implications for borehole climatology
Melo-Aguilar, C., González-Rouco, J. F., García-Bustamante, E., Navarro-Montesinos, J., and Steinert, N.
Climate of the Past, 14, 1583-1606 (2018).
T. M. Lenton, D.I. Armstrong McKay, S. Loriani, J.F. Abrams, S.J. Lade, J.F. Donges, M. Milkoreit, T. Powell, S.R. Smith, C. Zimm, J.E. Buxton, E. Bailey, L. Laybourn, A. Ghadiali, J.G. Dyke (eds), 2023, Global Tipping Points Report 2023. University of Exeter, Exeter, UK.
Future Earth, The Earth League, WCRP (2023), 10 New Insights in Climate Science 2023/2024. Stockholm
Future Earth, The Earth League, WCRP (2022), 10 New Insights in Climate Science 2022. Stockholm