Publications — Norman J. Steinert

In Review

METEORv1.6: Spatial climate variability and integrated impact emulation

Sanderson, B. M., M. Sandstad, M. Dewey, N. J. Steinert, J. Fjeldså

preprint

Key features of the climate response to overshoot

Steinert, N. J., K. Zickfeld, B. M. Sanderson, C. D. Koven, N. Mengis, P. Rethmeier, J. Schwinger

Decomposition of the Zero Emissions Commitment into thermal warming pipeline and carbon buffering components

Sanderson, B. M., M. Sandstad, A. Romero-Prieto, S. Jenkins, C. Koven, G. Peters, R. Séfèrian, A. H. MacDougall, A. Seshadri, V. Brovkin, J. Dunne, A. L. S. Swann, T. Koenigk, R. A. Fisher, D. Hohn, T. Ilyina, C. D. Jones, H. Li, P. Lawrence, S. Liddicoat, N. Mengis, A. Romanou, L. T. Sentman, C. Smith, N. J. Steinert, J. Tjiputra, T. Ziehn

preprint

How to use CMIP data in climate assessments

Marvel, K., C. Jones, V. Cooper, N. J. Steinert

Land carbon response to positive, zero, and negative CO₂ emissions across Earth system models

Swann, A. L. S., C. D. Koven, C. Proistosecu, R. A. Fisher, B. M. Sanderson, V. Brovkin, T. Hajima, C. D. Jones, N. Y. Kiang, D. M. Lawrence, S. Liddicoat, H. Liddy, A. Romanou, R. Séférian, L. T. Sentman, N. J. Steinert, J. Tjiputra, T. Ziehn

preprint

Observationally constrained climate sensitivity implies high climate tipping risk

Mühlhaus, R., N. J. Steinert, J. Rockström, N. Wunderling

preprint

Robust assessment of Solar Radiation Modification risks and uncertainties must include shocks and societal feedbacks

Sanderson, B. M., S. Baur, C.-F. Schleussner, G. Peters, S. Mittal, M. Sandstad, S. Kalbekken, C. Smith, S. Fuss, B. van Ruijven, R. Fisher, J. Rogelj, R. Séférian, B. Samset, N. J. Steinert, L. Terray, J. Fuglestvedt

preprint

Northern high latitudes could become a net carbon source below 2°C global warming

Varney, R. M., D. Hooke, N. J. Steinert, T. L. Smallman, C. Mathison, E. J. Burke

preprint

RCMIP Phase 3: Experimental protocol for coordinated constraining and evaluation of Reduced-Complexity Models

Romero-Prieto, A., M. Sandstad, B. M. Sanderson, Z. R. J. Nicholls, N. J. Steinert, T. Gasser, C. Mathison, J. Kikstra, T. J. Aubry, C. Smith

preprint

AMOC tipping slows permafrost carbon release during overshoot

Steinert, N. J., J. Schwinger, E. Burke, B. Zhu, T. Gasser, G. Munday, C. Mathison, S.-W. Park, H. Lee

preprint

Climate Change Hysteresis and Irreversibility

Kug, J.-S., Y. Shin, J.-H. Oh, C. Liu, S.-W. Yeh, J. Schwinger, K. Zickfeld, S.-I. An, S.-W. Son, S.-K. Min, H. Lee, N. J. Steinert

The Tipping Points Modelling Intercomparison Project (TIPMIP): Assessing tipping point risks in the Earth system

Winkelmann, R., D. P. Dennis, J. F. Donges, S. Loriani, A. K. Klose, J. F. Abrams, J. Alvarez-Solas, T. Albrecht, D. Armstrong McKay, S. Bathiany, J. Blasco Navarro, V. Brovkin, E. Burke, G. Danabasoglu, R. V. Donner, M. Drüke, G. Georgievski, H. Goelzer, A. B. Harper, G. Hegerl, M. Hirota, A. Hu, L. C. Jackson, C. Jones, H. Kim, T. Koenigk, P. Lawrence, T. M. Lenton, H. Liddy, J. Licón-Saláiz, M. Menthon, M. Montoya, J. Nitzbon, S. Nowicki, B. Otto-Bliesner, F. Pausata, S. Rahmstorf, K. Ramin, A. Robinson, J. Rockström, A. Romanou, B. Sakschewski, C. Schädel, S. Sherwood, R. S. Smith, N. J. Steinert, D. Swingedouw, M. Willeit, W. Weijer, R. Wood, K. Wyser, S. Yang

preprint

2026

Permafrost carbon-climate feedback amplifies Earth system tipping risks

Steinert, N. J., G. Munday, M. Sandstad, B. M. Sanderson, N. Wunderling

Environmental Research Letters, 21, 124008

DOI

The implications of overshooting 1.5°C on Earth system tipping elements — a review

Ritchie*, P. D. L., N. J. Steinert*, J. F. Abrams, H. Alkhayuon, C. W. Arnscheidt, N. Bochow, R. R. Chapman, J. Clarke, D. P. Dennis, J. F. Donges, B. M. Flores, J. Garbe, A. Högner, C. Huntingford, T. M. Lenton, J. Lohmann, K. Lux-Gottschalk, M. Milkoreit, T. Möller, P. Pearce-Kelly, L. Pereira, C. Quinn, C.-F. Schleussner, S. M. Stuenzi, D. Swingedouw, L. N. Van der Laan, K. Zickfeld, N. Wunderling*(*shared first authorship)

Environmental Research Letters, 21, 043001

DOI

2025

Permafrost sensitivity to soil hydro-thermodynamics in historical and scenario simulations with the MPI-ESM

García-Pereira, F., J. F. González-Rouco, N. Meabe-Yanguas, P. de Vrese, N. J. Steinert, J. Jungclaus, S. Lorenz

The Cryosphere, 19(11), 5959–5981

DOI

METEORv1.0.1: a novel framework for emulating multi-timescale regional climate responses

Sandstad, M., N. J. Steinert, S. Baur, B. M. Sanderson

Geoscientific Model Development, 18(21), 8269–8312

DOI

Normalizing the permafrost carbon feedback contribution to TCRE and the Zero Emissions Commitment

Steinert, N. J.& B. M. Sanderson

Earth System Dynamics, 16(5), 1711–1721

DOI

flat10MIP: An emissions-driven experiment to diagnose the climate response to positive, zero, and negative CO₂ emissions

Sanderson, B. M., V. Brovkin, R. A. Fisher, D. Hohn, T. Ilyina, C. D. Jones, T. Koenigk, C. Koven, H. Li, D. M. Lawrence, P. Lawrence, S. Liddicoat, A. H. MacDougall, N. Mengis, Z. Nicholls, E. O'Rourke, A. Romanou, M. Sandstad, J. Schwinger, R. Séférian, L. T. Sentman, I. R. Simpson, C. Smith, N. J. Steinert, A. L. S. Swann, J. Tjiputra, T. Ziehn

Geoscientific Model Development, 18(17), 5699–5724

DOI

Irreversible Land Water Availability Changes From a Potential ITCZ Shift During Temperature Overshoot

Steinert, N. J., J. Schwinger, R. Chadwick, J.-S. Kug, H. Lee

Earth's Future, 13(5), e2024EF005787

DOI

Risks of unavoidable impacts on forests at 1.5°C with and without overshoot

Munday, G., C. D. Jones, N. J. Steinert, C. Mathison, E. Burke, C. Smith, C. Huntingford, R. Varney

Nature Climate Change, 2025

DOI

Plant and soil characteristics as key predictors for future agricultural drought

Samantaray*, A. K., N. J. Steinert*, P. Mooney (*shared first authorship)

Environmental Research Letters, 20, 054059

DOI

PRIME: Probabilistic Regional Impacts from Model patterns and Emissions

Mathison, C. T., E. Burke, E. Kovacs, G. Munday, C. Jones, C. Smith, C. Huntingford, A. Wiltshire, N. J. Steinert, L. Gohar, R. Varney

Geoscientific Model Development, 18, 1785–1808

DOI

Continued permafrost ecosystem carbon loss under net-zero and negative emissions

Park, S-W., J.-H. Mun, J.-S. Kug, H. Lee, N. J. Steinert, S.-I. An, S. Jongsoo

Science Advances, 11, eadn8819

DOI

2024

Overconfidence in climate overshoot

Schleussner, C.-F., G. Ganti, Q. Lejeune, B. Zhu, P. Pfleiderer, R. Prütz, P. Ciais, T. L. Frölicher, S. Fuss, T. Gasser, M. J. Gidden, C. M. Kropf, F. Lacroix, R. Lamboll, R. Martyr, F. Maussion, J. W. McCaughey, M. Meinshausen, M. Mengel, Z. Nicholls, Y. Quilcaille, B. Sanderson, S. I. Seneviratne, J. Sillmann, C. J. Smith, N. J. Steinert, E. Theokritoff, R. Warren, J. Price, J. Rogelj

Nature, 634, 366–373

DOI

No respite from permafrost-thaw impacts in absence of a global tipping point

Nitzbon, J., T. Schneider von Deimling, M. Aliyeva, S. E. Chadburn, G. Grosse, S. Laboor, H. Lee, G. Lohmann, N. J. Steinert, S. M. Stuenzi, M. Werner, S. Westermann, M. Langer

Nature Climate Change, 14, 573–585

DOI

Underestimated Land Heat Uptake Alters the Global Energy Distribution in CMIP6 Climate Models

Steinert, N. J., F. J. Cuesta-Valero, F. García-Pereira, P. de Vrese, C. Melo-Aguilar, E. García-Bustamante, J. H. Jungclaus, J. F. González-Rouco

Geophysical Research Letters, 51(10), e2023GL107613

DOI

Ten New Insights in Climate Science 2023

Bustamante, M., J. Roy, D. Ospina, P. Achakulwisut, A. Aggarwal, A. Bastos, W. Broadgate, J. G. Canadell, E. R. Carr, D. Chen, H. A. Cleugh, K. L. Ebi, C. Edwards, C. Farbotko, M. Fernández-Martínez, T. L. Frölicher, S. Fuss, O. Geden, N. Gruber, L. J. Harrington, J. Hauck, Z. Hausfather, S. Hebden, A. Hebinck, S. Huq, M. Huss, M. L. P. Jamero, S. Juhola, N. Kumarasinghe, S. Lwasa, B. Mallick, M. Martin, S. McGreevy, P. Mirazo, A. Mukherji, G. Muttitt, G. F. Nemet, D. Obura, C. Okereke, T. Oliver, B. Orlove, N. S. Ouedraogo, P. K. Patra, M. Pelling, L. M. Pereira, Å. Persson, J. Pongratz, A. Prakash, A. Rammig, C. Raymond, A. Redman, C. Reveco, J. Rockström, R. Rodrigues, D. R. Rounce, E. L. F. Schipper, P. Schlosser, O. Selomane, G. Semieniuk, Y.-J. Shin, T. A. Siddiqui, V. Singh, G. B. Sioen, Y. Sokona, D. Stammer, N. J. Steinert, S. Suk, R. Sutton, L. Thalheimer, V. Thompson, G. Trencher, K. van der Geest, S. E. Werners, T. Wübbelmann, N. Wunderling, J. Yin, K. Zickfeld, J. Zscheischler

Global Sustainability, 7, e19, 1–30

DOI

First comprehensive assessment of industrial era land heat uptake from multiple sources

García-Pereira, F., J. F. González-Rouco, C. Melo-Aguilar, N. J. Steinert, E. García-Bustamante, P. de Vrese, J. Jungclaus, S. Lorenz, S. Hagemann, F. J. Cuesta-Valero, A. García-García, H. Beltrami

Earth System Dynamics, 15, 547–564

DOI

Climate tipping point interactions and cascades: A review

Wunderling*, N., A. S. von der Heydt*, Y. Aksenov, S. Barker, R. Bastiaansen, V. Brovkin, M. Brunetti, V. Couplet, T. Kleinen, C. H. Lear, J. Lohmann, R. M. Roman-Cuesta, S. Sinet, D. Swingedouw, R. Winkelmann, P. Anand, J. Barichivich, S. Bathiany, M. Baudena, J. T. Bruun, C. M. Chiessi, H. K. Coxall, D. Docquier, J. F. Donges, S. K. J. Falkena, A. K. Klose, D. Obura, J. Rocha, S. Rynders, N. J. Steinert, M. Willeit (*shared first authorship)

Earth System Dynamics, 15(1), 41–74

DOI

Thermodynamic and hydrological drivers of the subsurface thermal regime in Central Spain

García-Pereira, F., J. F. González-Rouco, T. Schmid, C. Melo-Aguilar, C. Vegas-Cañas, N. J. Steinert, P. J. Roldán-Gómez, F. J. Cuesta-Valero, A. García-García, H. Beltrami, P. de Vrese

SOIL, 10(1), 1–21

DOI

2023

Evaluating permafrost definitions for global permafrost area estimates in CMIP6 climate models

Steinert, N. J., M. V. Debolskiy, E. J. Burke, F. García-Pereira, H. Lee

Environmental Research Letters, 19(1), 014033

DOI

Representation of soil hydrology in permafrost regions may explain large part of inter-model spread in simulated Arctic and subarctic climate

de Vrese, P., G. Georgievski, J. F. Gonzalez Rouco, D. Notz, T. Stacke, N. J. Steinert, S. Wilkenskjeld, V. Brovkin

The Cryosphere, 17(5), 2095–2118

DOI

2022

Emit now, mitigate later? Earth system reversibility under overshoots of different magnitude and durations

Schwinger, J., A. Asaadi, N. J. Steinert, H. Lee

Earth System Dynamics, 13(4), 1641–1665

DOI

Ten new insights in climate science 2022

Martin, M., E. A. Boakye, E. Boyd, W. Broadgate, M. Bustamante, J. G. Canadell, E. R. Carr, E. K. Chu, H. Cleugh, S. Csevár, M. Daoudy, A. de Bremond, M. Dhimal, K. L. Ebi, C. Edwards, S. Fuss, M. P. Girardin, B. Glavovic, S. Hebden, M. Hirota, H.-H. Hsu, S. Huq, K. Ingold, O. M. Johannessen, Y. Kameyama, N. Kumarasinghe, G. S. Langendijk, T. Lissner, S. Lwasa, C. Machalaba, A. Maltais, M. V. Mathai, C. Mbow, K. E. McNamara, A. Mukherji, V. Murray, J. Mysiak, C. Okereke, D. Ospina, F. Otto, A. Prakash, J. M. Pulhin, E. Raju, A. Redman, K. K. Rigaud, J. Rockström, J. Roy, E. L. F. Schipper, P. Schlosser, K. A. Schulz, K. Schumacher, L. Schwarz, M. Scown, B. Šedová, T. A. Siddiqui, C. Singh, G. B. Sioen, D. Stammer, N. J. Steinert, S. Suk, R. Sutton, L. Thalheimer, M. van Aalst, K. van der Geest, Z. J. Zhao

Global Sustainability, 5, e20, 1–20

DOI

Near-surface soil thermal regime and land-air temperature coupling: a case study over Spain

Melo-Aguilar, C. A., J. F. González-Rouco, N. J. Steinert, H. Beltrami, F. Cuesta-Valero, A. García-García, F. García-Pereira, E. García-Bustamante, P. Roldán-Gómez, T. Schmid, J. Navarro

International Journal of Climatology, 42(15), 7516–7534

DOI

Impact of improved land surface model physics on simulated climate variability and change

Steinert, N.

PhD Thesis, Complutense University of Madrid

Link

2021

Increasing the Depth of a Land Surface Model. Part I: Impacts on Subsurface Thermal Regime and Energy Storage

González-Rouco, J. F., N. J. Steinert, E. García-Bustamante, S. Hagemann, P. de Vrese, J. H. Jungclaus, S. J. Lorenz, C. Melo-Aguilar, F. García-Pereira, J. Navarro

Journal of Hydrometeorology, 22(12), 3211–3230

DOI

Increasing the Depth of a Land Surface Model. Part II: Temperature Sensitivity to Improved Subsurface Thermodynamics and Associated Permafrost Response

Steinert, N. J., J. F. González-Rouco, P. de Vrese, E. García-Bustamante, S. Hagemann, C. Melo-Aguilar, J. H. Jungclaus, S. J. Lorenz

Journal of Hydrometeorology, 22(12), 3231–3254

DOI

Agreement of Analytical and Simulation-Based Estimates of the Required Land Depth in Climate Models

Steinert, N. J., J. F. González-Rouco, C. A. Melo Aguilar, F. García-Pereira, E. García-Bustamante, P. de Vrese, V. Alexeev, J. H. Jungclaus, S. J. Lorenz, S. Hagemann

Geophysical Research Letters, 48(20), e2021GL094273

DOI

Cambio climático: una perspectiva global

González-Rouco, J. F., E. García-Bustamante, F. García-Pereira, E. Lucio Eceiza, C. Melo-Aguilar, J. Navarro Montesinos, C. Rojas Labanda, P. Roldán, N. J. Steinert, C. Vegas Cañas

Book chapter inCambio climático en el Mediterráneo, Ch. 2, 49–73. Tirant Humanidades, Valencia.

Link

2020

Methodological and physical biases in global to subcontinental borehole temperature reconstructions: a pseudo-proxy perspective

Melo-Aguilar, C., J. F. González-Rouco, E. García-Bustamante, N. Steinert, J. H. Jungclaus, J. Navarro, P. J. Roldán-Gómez

Climate of the Past, 16, 453–474

DOI

2018

Influence of radiative forcing factors on ground-air temperature coupling during the last millennium

Melo-Aguilar, C., J. F. González-Rouco, E. García-Bustamante, J. Navarro-Montesinos, N. Steinert

Climate of the Past, 14, 1583–1606

DOI

Reports

Lenton, T. M., M. Milkoreit, S. Willcock, J. F. Abrams, D. I. Armstrong McKay, J. E. Buxton, J. F. Donges, S. Loriani, N. Wunderling, F. Alkemade, M. Barrett, S. Constantino, T. Powell, S. R. Smith, C. A. Boulton, P. Pinho, H. A. Dijkstra, P. Pearce-Kelly, R. M. Roman-Cuesta, D. Dennis (eds), 2025 —Global Tipping Points Report 2025. University of Exeter, Exeter, UK.
global-tipping-points.org

Kitzmann, N. H., L. Caesar, B. Sakschewski, J. Rockström (eds), 2025 —Planetary Health Check 2025. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam, Germany.
planetaryhealthcheck.org

Lenton, T. M., D. I. Armstrong McKay, S. Loriani, J. F. Abrams, S. J. Lade, J. F. Donges, M. Milkoreit, T. Powell, S. R. Smith, C. Zimm, J. E. Buxton, E. Bailey, L. Laybourn, A. Ghadiali, J. G. Dyke (eds), 2023 —Global Tipping Points Report 2023. University of Exeter, Exeter, UK.
global-tipping-points.org

Future Earth, The Earth League, WCRP (2023) —10 New Insights in Climate Science 2023/2024. Stockholm.
10insightsclimate.science

Future Earth, The Earth League, WCRP (2022) —10 New Insights in Climate Science 2022. Stockholm.
10insightsclimate.science

Datasets

Underestimated land heat uptake alters the global energy distribution in CMIP6 climate models
zenodo.org/records/10669977

Distribution maps of Biosphere and Cryosphere tipping elements
zenodo.org/records/10119479

Evaluating permafrost definitions for global permafrost area estimates in CMIP6 climate models
zenodo.org/records/10103001